How to resolve AdBlock issue? Dr. Charlie Evans, who has been assisting with Public Health officer duties, told the board that the picture in Lake County in recent weeks is looking better, important news after a late summer and early fall that witnessed climbing case rates and deaths.
August and September, with 16 and 13 deaths, respectively, were the months with the second- and third-highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths in Lake County since the start of the pandemic, Lake County Public Health reported in response to an information request from Lake County News. Public Health said that due to the lag in reporting COVID-19-related deaths, September’s numbers may change.
January had the most deaths, 19, with Lake County’s total deaths at 97, Public Health reported.
Public Health said that 35.1% of Lake County’s 97 total COVID-related deaths have occurred since July 1.
“We have seen a constant but steady decline in our numbers of new COVID-19 infections,” Evans said in a video update presented to the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday. Evans called that decline “very encouraging.”
He said the virus appears to run in cycles, and that Lake County’s declining number of cases is consistent with what other counties, states and countries are seeing.
Those cycles tend to be every two to three months. “It’s poorly understood why it runs this way,” said Evans.
Just as fast as the infections go up, after 8 to 12 weeks the infection rate starts to go down. “We have seen this phenomenon across the world,” Evans said.
He said the first time that cycle was seen was in India. “Unfortunately, in India and in many other places across the world, when we saw the decline, the decline didn’t come down to the same low baseline from which it started.”
In May, Lake County saw its lowest case rate, at three per 100,000. As of Tuesday, it was at 38 per 100,000. Evans said Lake County peaked at about 70 per 100,000 in early August.
While the current numbers are better, Evans said the case rate is still dangerously high with a lot of the virus circulating in the community.
He said those numbers need to continue to decline as the winter and the holidays approach, when more community transmission is likely with people moving indoors and temperatures dropping.
That’s what’s happening in Alaska, where Evans said the infection rate is 150 per 100,000.
Evans said current statistics have shown that many of the 100,000 people across the country who have died since July 1 were much younger than those who died at the beginning of the pandemic.
“The process of dying from COVID-19 is a horrible experience,” said Evans, noting the isolation and aloneness for the patients and their families. It’s something he said he sees every day in his work as an emergency room physician in Sonoma County.
Evans maintained that vaccinations are the ticket to getting out of the pandemic.
Between Sept. 1 and 25, 2,700 vaccinations were given in Lake County. At a rate of more than 100 shots a day, it was an increased rate of vaccination over August, said Evans.
As of this week, 61% of Lake County residents are fully vaccinated, compared to 70% statewide, based on Lake County Public Health numbers.
Statewide, those who are eligible but haven’t been vaccinated total 22% of the population; in Lake County, it’s 32%, Evans said. “We are doing better and we still have opportunities.”
He also updated the board on the outbreak in the Lake County Jail, where the peak was 83 cases — 11 staff and 72 inmates. As of this week, there was just one active case in a staffer.
Evans said hospitals are still struggling with staffing. As of Tuesday, there were three ICU beds available in Lake and Mendocino counties combined. Sonoma County has similar challenges.
As an ER physician, Evans said he constantly struggles to get placements, sometimes waiting 24 hours to transfer someone as far as 200 to 300 miles away. “We’re still struggling with bed availability.”
On Saturday, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a mandate for all students in schools to be vaccinated against COVID-19, which Evans said follows mandates for measles, mumps, polio, rubella, diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus vaccinations.
California is the first state to mandate the vaccine for COVID-19. “It’s likely that other states will follow suit in the coming weeks,” Evans said.
He expects the school mandate to be in effect as early as January.
Evans said there have been numerous COVID-19 infections in Lake County’s schools, but no schools have had to be closed. Statewide, 12 schools have been closed because of outbreaks and the virus has closed 2,000 schools nationwide. Evans credited the masking mandate and the state’s higher vaccination rates with so few schools closing.
He said California also has a modified quarantine protocol for keeping children in school. When an unvaccinated student is exposed to an active case, they can still come to school if they are asymptomatic, they are tested twice weekly, wear the proper mask and continue to be quarantined from all extracurricular activities. That seems to be working in Lake County.
“As we muddle our way through this pandemic, the one item we can count on, I think, is change. Everything changes with new data. We don’t know where we’re going exactly or how we’re going to get to the end of this,” Evans said.
The information available currently helps to reduce and manage risk, with Evans anticipating another surge in the winter months. That’s why he said it’s all the more important for people to be vaccinated.
The delta virus is out there and active in the community, and Evans said it will find and infect the unvaccinated. It makes people sick, some critically so, and some will die.
At the same time as he urged people to get the COVID-19 vaccine, Evans also urged them to get their flu shot, which is now being rolled out for the coming flu season.
Information on vaccination availability and clinics in Lake County is available here.
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